State, Economy and Society in Times of Zeitenwende:
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MSC 2024 Dachgarten conversation
“Climate change as a strategic challenge“
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Climate change has long begun also determining the security policy agendas around the world. Against this background, the interview sheds light on future deployment scenarios of the Bundeswehr, not least in relation to assistance in dealing with climate-induced natural disasters at home. The Minister of Defense also gave her opinion on possible improvements in the area of civil-military cooperation and on the implications of the “European Green Deal” for the European armed forces. The interview was conducted in March 2021 by Metis Director Prof. Dr. Carlo Masala. English and German subtitles are available. These are edited slightly for better readability.
“Women make unique contributions all the time.“
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In a landmark ruling in 2000 the German armed forces were opened for women to serve in all branches. As of today, the proportion of women is at a good 12 per cent. This interview offers future female military leaders in the Bundeswehr encouragement and some perspective from two highly distinguished senior female military leaders, Retired Australian Major General Simone Wilkie and Canadian Lieutenant General Chris Whitecross. The interview was conducted online by Metis Director Prof. Dr. Carlo Masala in July 2020. English and German subtitles are available. They have been edited slightly to make them easier to read. The text version with additional statistics and graphics is available here.
Workshop July 2022 - EU, NATO and National Security Strategy
NATO NaSiSt Workshop
Workshop July 2022 - EU, NATO and National Security Strategy
NATO NaSiSt Workshop
Workshop July 2022 - EU, NATO and National Security Strategy
NATO NaSiSt Workshop
Workshop July 2022 - EU, NATO and National Security Strategy
NATO NaSiSt Workshop
MSC Conversations
In the picture left to right: C. Masala, B. Pistorius
MSC Conversations
In the picture left to right: C. Masala, B. Pistorius
MSC Conversations
C. Masala
MSC Conversations
B. Pistorius
MSC Conversations
In the picture left to right: C. Masala, B. Pistorius
MSC Public Square: Conversation with the new German Defence Minister
In the picture left to right: C. Masala, B. Pistorius
MSC Public Square: Conversation with the new German Defence Minister
In the picture left to right: C. Masala, B. Pistorius
MSC Public Square: Conversation with the new German Defence Minister
In the picture left to right: C. Masala, B. Pistorius
BCSC 2023 - Roundtable discussion: Climate and security: The defence perspective
Roundtable discussion
BCSC 2023 - Climate and security: The defence perspective
In the picture left to right: Brig. Gen. Jürgen Schrödl, Raphaela Engel, Dr. Nicolas Regaud, James Appathurai
BCSC 2023 - Climate and security: The defence perspective
Raphaela Engel - European External Action Services (EEAS)
BCSC 2023 - Climate and security: The defence perspective
Brigadier General Jürgen Schrödl - Chief of Division II, Directorate-General for Security and Defence Policy, Federal Ministry of Defense, Germany
BCSC 2023 - Climate and security: The defence perspective
James Appathurai - Deputy Assistant Secretary General for Emerging Security Challenges
BCSC 2023 - Climate and security: The defence perspective
Dr. Nicolas Regaud - Senior advisor for climate to the Vice-Chief of the Defence Staff, French Ministry for the Armed Forces
MSC 2020 Side-Event: Meet the Minister
In the picture left to right: C. Masala, A. Kramp-Karrenbauer
MSC 2020 Side-Event: Meet the Minister
In the picture left to right: C. Masala, A. Kramp-Karrenbauer
9th Meeting of the Strategy and Foresight Network on the subject of climate change
In the picture, left to right: G. von Geyr, U. von der Leyen, C. Masala, H.J. Schellnuber, N. Parker
MSC 2019 Side-Event: Europe's Role in the World - A Next Generation Debate
In the picture left to right: D. Weimert, S. Besch, C.P. Sassenrath
MSC 2019 Side-Event: Europe's Role in the World - A Next Generation Debate
In the picture: D. Weimert
MSC 2019 Side-Event: Europe's Role in the World - A Next Generation Debate
In the picture's centre from left to right: S. Pornschlegel, C.P. Sassenrath, D. Weimert, S. Besch
5th Meeting of the Strategy and Foresight Network on the subject of extremism, terrorism, and radicalization
5th Meeting of the Strategy and Foresight Network on the subject of extremism, terrorism, and radicalization
In the picture, left to right: G. von Geyr, U. von der Leyen, C. Masala, M. Bajbouj
Study 35: Trends and developments in hybrid threats
Hybrid threats affect ever more areas of society. Hybrid actors exploit vulnerabilities of complex and highly networked societies in order to achieve political, ideological or economic objectives. This study examines new trends and developments in terms of hybrid threats and discusses future implications for national and international security.
Study 34: Stability in Africa
Political stability in Africa affects the security of Europe and Germany. The African continent is undergoing political, economic, and social transformation processes and continues to be affected by instabilities as a result. Endogenous and exogenous factors lead to ethnic and transnational conflicts and foster the re-emergence of international terrorism. Africa will increasingly become an arena of hegemonic competition between the West, Russia and China.
Study 33: Scenarios: Effects of climate change on Bundeswehr missions
This study discusses the security implications and effects of climate change on future Bundeswehr operations. To this end, the study draws on and combines scenarios published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on emission-induced climate change as well as the associated processes of socio-economic transformation to create three reference scenarios that describe different climate-related operational scenarios. On the basis of the different development pathways of these scenarios, future challenges resulting from climate-induced operations are outlined and recommendations for action for the Bundeswehr are derived.
Study 32: Scenarios: Reassuring Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine
Russia’s attack on Ukraine in February 2022 has fundamentally changed the current security and defence landscape in Europe. 1 Neighbouring countries to the east and southeast which are not currently part of any alliance are seeking closer cooperation with NATO and the EU. Against the backdrop of the current geopolitical situation, this study discusses future scenarios that could form a basis for closer cooperation with Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia and identifies possible recommendations for action.
Study 31: Zeitenwende: The Russian invasion of Ukraine and its implications
This study analyses some of the implications of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine. To this end, it interprets the idea of the Zeitenwende as a turning point in terms of defence, arms control and mentality before outlining recommendations for action in all three areas.
Study 30: Peace in sight? Armenia, Azerbaijan and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
The conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the province of Nagorno-Karabakh has been one of the main destabilising factors in the post-Soviet region for more than three decades. In recent years, and especially since Russia’s attack on Ukraine, Nagorno-Karabakh has become another contributing factor in the conflict between Russia and the West. The EU could play a prominent role in the mediation and resolution of this conflict if it remains mindful of historical sensibilities, national needs and obligations, as well as geopolitical realities.
Study 29: The Eastern Mediterranean security complex – escalation or improvement?
The Eastern Mediterranean is the Achilles heel of the European Union (EU) and NATO. The political cohesion of the Western Alliance, Europe’s autonomy on matters of security policy, and the EU’s energy resilience are all put to the test in the region. This study focuses on the conflict between Greece and Turkey in the Aegean Sea, which highlights the complexity of the security policy challenges facing the region. It identifies developments in the field of security policy and derives possible recommendations for action.
Study 28: Uncrewed systems: armaments, control and arms control
This study will reconstruct the growing importance of uncrewed weapon systems and the Bundeswehr’s difficult relationship with these systems. The second part features a piece of fiction that sketches a possible future in which the Bundeswehr uses uncrewed systems innovatively, effectively and responsibly. From this scenario, the third part derives concrete recommendations for action that take into account the three corresponding objectives of armaments, control and arms control. The illustrations for this study were created using AI (Midjourney).
Study 27: New challenges for UN peacekeeping
Peace missions are an important instrument of international conflict resolution. Peacekeeping operations cover a broad spectrum, ranging from ceasefire monitoring to state-building. Peace operations will continue to have to deal with old and familiar problems in the 21st century. But will political, technological, conflict-relevant and environmental developments bring new challenges?
Study 26: New hybrid threats
In the future, hybrid wars will increasingly come to shape the international security situation. Countries use hybrid threats during peacetime to exploit the vulnerability of complex and highly interconnected societies and to weaken adversaries by creating a permanent state of pseudo-war. Hybrid threats will likely further encroach on more areas of society. Existing security architectures therefore need to become more agile and countries such as Germany need to establish a resilient security culture in order to be able to meet these challenges.
Study 25: Quantum technologies: Implications for security and defence
Strange as they may appear, the special properties of quantum mechanical processes have been studied for more than a hundred years. Thanks to advances in our ability to manipulate them, we can now increasingly utilise them for technical applications. There are high hopes pinned to this development but the chances of success are still uncertain. This study presents the state of research in four areas of quantum technology, looks ahead at possible security and military implications, and concludes with a number of recommendations for action.
Interview 04: “What degree of human involvement should there be in the use of force?“ Paul Scharre on weapon autonomy and the human role in future warfighting
After multiple tours to Iran and Afghanistan as an Army Ranger, Paul Scharre played a key role in establishing policies on emerging weapons technologies at the US Department of Defense. In particular, he led the working group that drafted Directive 3000.09, the Pentagon’s 2012 policy on autonomy in weapon systems. With “Army of None”, Scharre also published a widely popular book on autonomy in weapons systems. The interview was conducted by Metis Head of Research Dr. Frank Sauer in March 2021 via Zoom. This transcript was slightly redacted.
Study 24: The future of NATO’s northern flank
The High North, in particular NATO’s northern flank, has faced Russian provocation for several years. In contrast to the situation on its eastern flank, the Alliance has not yet come up with a deterrence strategy to respond to this new challenge in the region. This study outlines what a potential deterrence policy in the High North could actually look like and what Germany could do to contribute.
Study 23: Armed forces and the European Green Deal
With the European Green Deal, the EU has set itself the goal of becoming climate neutral by 2050. That includes more robust environmental protection, a sustainable economic order and climate-friendly growth. The aim is to reduce the effects of climate change and environmental risks and to achieve the climate goals set forth in the Paris Agreement. The social and economic changes prompted by the Green Deal will lead to new transformation challenges and security implications for armed forces.
Study 22: Relief and re-engagement – German initiatives for stronger transatlantic cooperation
Whether and how the states of the transatlantic region can agree on a common strategy towards China will be the litmus test for their future cooperation. The new Biden administration continues to call for more responsibility to be assumed. The United States see themselves in the midst of a systemic confrontation and expect concrete initiatives, diplomatic assistance and substantial support from their allies in order to face the challenges posed by China’s rise in power. Europe and Germany must manage a balancing act. On the one hand, it is important to protect their own interests in the economic sphere, which are different from those of the US. On the other hand, it is important to relieve the US of security policy tasks by assuming more responsibility.
Study 21: Resilience
In recent years, the concept of resilience has become increasingly relevant in discussions of national and international security. It factors into political discourse when it comes to hybrid challenges, crisis management, technological vulnerabilities and climate change. It provides a comprehensive definition of the robustness of states and organisations in the face of multidimensional challenges but is often conceptually vague and can only be verified in hindsight. This study examines resilience primarily from the perspective of security policy and crisis management.
Study 20: Conventional arms control and emerging technologies
The verifiability of limits or bans on countable units of military hardware is a key element of successful arms control. A number of new technologies, however, do not lend themselves to this quantitative approach. This study looks at hypersonic glide vehicles, autonomy in weapons systems and brain-computer interfaces as examples of new and emerging technologies and points out the need for regulation before going on to discuss how qualitative arms control can meet these new challenges.
Study 19: Biden / Harris 2020: A look ahead at possible implications for security policy
An end to the presidency of Donald J. Trump would serve as an opportunity for Europe and Germany not only to repair the broken relationship with the US but also to play a more active role in the future orientation of the West. Through early initiatives, Germany could shape US calls for more European responsibility and help transform current differences between the Allies into transatlantic progress.
Study 18: Nuclear arms control in crisis
There is an urgent need to adapt nuclear arms control to technological and political changes, and to further develop and consolidate its bilateral and multilateral instruments. But instead, existing agreements are under threat of erosion. This study outlines the deep crisis in which nuclear arms control finds itself. It concludes with a positive and a negative scenario and encourages further research.
Interview 02: “Women make unique contributions all the time.“ Lieutenant General Chris Whitecross (CAN) and Retired Major General Simone Wilkie (AUS) on female leaders in armed forces
In a landmark ruling in 2000 the German armed forces were opened for women to serve in all branches. As of today, the proportion of women is at a good 12 per cent. This interview offers future female military leaders in the Bundeswehr encouragement and some perspective from two highly distinguished senior female military leaders, Retired Australian Major General Simone Wilkie and Canadian Lieutenant General Chris Whitecross. The interview was conducted online by Metis Director Prof. Dr. Carlo Masala in July 2020. This transcript was edited slightly. The video recording is available here.
Study 17: Maritime strategic thinking: The GIUK example
After years of neglect, the GIUK Gap is now once more receiving the attention it deserves from the security community. Although its significance with regard to the Arctic is likely to change in the future, this area in the North Atlantic remains a strategically important line of communication and transportation for the US and Europe. This study anticipates possible strategic courses of action for NATO.
Study 16: Deterrence in the 21st century
At first sight, deterrence reflects a simple idea: A credible threat of retaliation convinces potential attackers that the cost of an act of aggression will outweigh its benefit. That is how deterrence prevents war. A closer look at the concept, however, has raised questions ever since the beginning of the nuclear age. Against the backdrop of current security policy challenges, this study examines if and how the concept remains applicable.
Study 15: Central Asia and the Caucasus
Central Asia is increasingly becoming a focus region for matters of geopolitics, security and energy due to its energy resources and China’s new Silk Road. The local deposits of oil and gas have proven to be both an advantage and a disadvantage for the Central Asian states. They are strengthening the positions of authoritarian elites in the regional fossil economies and resulting in national economies that react sensitively to price fluctuations in the oil and gas markets and depend on external investments. The Caucasus can similarly be regarded as a transit area for energy, raw materials and goods as well as a s mouldering trouble spot. After highlighting the political, economic and security situations, the study examines how the visibility and influence of the EU can be increased in the regions.
Study 14: Science fiction and foresight
Science fiction can be an important source of inspiration in the context of strategic foresight and a tool to prepare for what could – or should – lie ahead. In this study, a brief examination of this connection will be followed by a closer look at the genre of science fiction and a number of specific examples before concluding with four recommended readings.
Study 13: Space security
There has been a recent resurgence of interest among state actors and an increasing number of private stakeholders in the exploration and commercialisation of space. This renewed activity has resulted in a number of security issues and challenges. The present study not only examines the role of satellites as critical infrastructures indispensable for the functioning of modern societies but also addresses some of the problems associated with space debris. It also focusses on space weapons and the growing risks they pose to space objects and emphasise the importance of further developing international law with regard to space security. Finally, the study takes a look at ways of safeguarding German and European interests in space.
Study 12: Global health
Health is a guarantee for personal well-being and social, economic and political development and stability. Serious threats to it can destabilize societies, states and regions and jeopardize peace, so global health risks have long been a subject of security-related thought. The present study takes a prescient look at two developments. The first is that of the risk of pandemics, with a focus on the increasing resistance of pathogens; the second is that of the chances for improving global health care. The study's final section briefly looks at three health-related matters to think about for the Bundeswehr.
Study 11: Inhospitable – A Short Story
Cli-fi, short for climate fiction, is literature that deals – more or less speculatively – with the effects of climate change. The following short story falls into this genre and is set in the near future.
Interview 01: “Every tenth of a degree counts“ Prof. Dr. Hans Joachim Schellnhuber on the security implications of climate change
Interview between climatologist Prof. Dr. Hans Joachim Schellnhuber and Prof. Dr. Carlo Masala, Director of Metis. The interview was recorded at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research on 9 May 2019. The interview has been abridged and edited for clarity.
Study 10: Africa – a continent on the rise?
The 21st century belongs to Africa. At least that is what the concept of an “African Renaissance” promises. The African continent is going through a phase of transition and new beginnings. It would be in their own best interest for Germany and Europe to continue to support sustainable economic development and prosperity, political stabilisation, self-organisation and further democratisation as well as environmental protection in Africa. Empowering and supporting African states without fostering neo-colonial dependencies should be the primary objective of German and European Africa policy.
Study 09: Increasing competition for resources – what are the implications for security?
This study focuses on two natural resources that are particularly relevant for Germany: rare-earth metals, which are needed for the production of future technologies, and natural gas, which is important for energy production in connection with the energy transition. Space mining is also examined as a proposed form of resource extraction that promises to be an alternative to exploiting Earth. Finally, a number of implications for security and economic policy are discussed, including the possible reconsideration of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project.
Study 08: Great powers and digitisation: What are the implications for world order?
This study focuses on the triad of data, its processing and its conversion into economic and military power to shed light on the race between the United States and China for supremacy in the digital age. It highlights arms and arms control, strategic stability and, prospectively, the implications of a potential quantum computing revolution. The study ends with a number of further-reaching thoughts regarding the implications of the digital age’s world order for liberal democracies such as Germany.
Study 07: The conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran: How to respond to developments and regional implications?
The hegemonic struggle in the Middle East between Saudi Arabia and Iran – and in a broader sense between Saudi Arabia, Iran and Turkey – for supremacy in the Islamic world has already led to proxy conflicts in Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. This not only raises the threat of interstate conflict but could also lead to territorial reorganisation in the Middle East. It calls for a reassessment of existing alliances and partnerships in the region.
Study 06: Food and water scarcity – A key factor in future conflicts?
The extended concept of security means that many additional factors now influence security policy considerations. These factors include food and water scarcity and the interrelationship between this problem and existing conflict potential. The present study will address this issue in the context of the water-food-energy-climate nexus. It will outline global trends and, by focusing on the example of water scarcity and a number of relevant cases, will show that conflicts do not necessarily have to be aggravated but can also be dealt with, to a certain extent, in a multilateral, cooperative way. Progressing climate change will lead to greater challenges in this area, but they will remain firstly humanitarian, development policy and climate policy challenges and only secondly security challenges.
Study 05: Fragile, failed and quasi states – who are we dealing with?
State fragility in Africa affects the security of Europe and Germany. State failure, weak state institutions and transnational and ethnic conflicts are all causing migration and are factors conducive to radicalisation and international terrorism. Identifying and cooperating with reliable state, international and non-governmental partners in the region are thus long-term measures of conflict prevention.
Study 04: Delegitimising the IS narrative: What are the strategies of our partners?
In terms of propaganda, particularly on the Internet, the Islamic State (IS) has set new standards. Although the organisation has been defeated militarily, individual IS-related attacks continue to take place. Additional preparations must be made with a view toward countering successor organisations. This paper first examines the radicalisation process as well as the IS narrative. Against this backdrop, it develops three rules of thumb with which to create counter- and alternative narratives aimed at delegitimising IS. To this end, it draws on practical examples from partner nations.
Study 03: What future for Turkey as a member of NATO?
Among the states with increasingly authoritarian political systems, Turkey is of special interest to Germany, as it is a NATO partner and, additionally, because Germany is home to a large Turkish minority. Recent developments require a politico-military reevaluation of German-Turkish relations and, if necessary, adjustments, particularly in light of Turkey’s obstructionist attitude within NATO over the past few years. Germany must develop a strategy to bind Turkey to the West in the post-Erdogan era. This requires bilateral attempts as well as an approach at the EU/NATO level.
Study 02: The impact of climate change on the Arctic
The impact of climate change on the Arctic is of importance to Germany and the international community in geopolitical, geoeconomic and geoecological terms. The freedom of sea routes, the use of maritime resources and the exploitation of these resources on the sea bed and the possible militarisation of the Arctic will affect German and European economic and security interests. Although the security policy implications of climate change will emerge only gradually, Germany should prepare for political, legal, economic, ecological and military challenges in concert with its European and international partners. These include establishing capabilities for operations in the Arctic and conducting manoeuvres with partners in the region.
Study 01: The security-policy effects of digitisation: Future forms of conflict and conflict management
The autonomy of machines is the most important future trend in the digital age. With regard to weapon systems, autonomy promises to act as a force multiplier and to permit higher operational speeds and more precise effects. However, in matters of conflict management, the elimination of human control carries operational risks of a legal and ethical nature as well as strategic risks due to new, escalation-prone forms of conflict. As regards a Bundeswehr use of autonomous weapon systems, this report thus recommends a nuanced approach that helps the Bundeswehr exploit potential advantages while minimising the risks. On a national level, this approach includes preparing a policy document to make sure that the selection and engagement of targets always remains under meaningful human control except for defensive systems. On an international level, it encompasses efforts toward an international, verifiable set of regulations on autonomy in weapon systems that are legally binding under international law.