We are already living in the climate crisis

That’s how much warmer spring 2024 was in Germany compared to the long-term average.

The impacts of the climate crisis are already being felt in Germany. What climate impacts can we expect by 2040?

In Germany, we will face an increase in frequency and intensity of extreme weather events Disasters like the Ahr Valley flood of 2021, which were previously considered “once -in-a-century events”, will become much more frequent in the future. These events include heatwaves, droughts, and wildfires, as well as heavy rainfall events and resulting floods. Even areas that are currently considered safe will be affected by flooding in the future.

The increasing frequency of wildfires and floods will pose technical, personnel, and financial challenges for aid and disaster relief organizations such as the Red Cross and the THW (Federal Agency for Technical Relief). The German Armed Forces, which provide internal assistance in the event of a disaster upon request, will also face additional strain.

of all deaths due to extreme weather events in the EU can be attributed to heatwaves.

The climate crisis will increasingly influence political, economic, and social dynamics within the EU by 2040. In particular, southern European countries will experience devastating consequences for their economy and public health, which will affect the stability of the entire EU.

The economy in many southern European countries is shaped by sectors that are particularly negatively impacted by rising average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves and droughts: tourism and agriculture. A decline in tourism and crop failures could lead to economic instability and pose conflict potential for the EU. The health impacts are also significant. For example heat-related mortality in southern Europe is expected to increase significantly by 2040.

With current climate policies and an expected global temperature rise of 2.7 °C (corresponding to the "SSP2-4.5") it is expected that by the end of the century, 22–39% of the world’s population will no longer live in the "climate niche” that can sustain human life. It is hard to doubt that this will lead to increased migration movements – both within Europe and to Europe.

Increasing resource scarcity worldwide is leading to intensified competition for raw materials and resource exploitation areas. One example of a region that will increasingly come into political, economic, and military focus is the Arctic. Due to rising temperatures, it is becoming increasingly ice-free: by 2040, the sea ice area could shrink from the current 4 million km² to under 2 million km².

As a result, it is gaining importance as a shipping route and potential resource exploitation area. Russia has been expanding its military presence in the Arctic for several years.