The verifiability of limits or bans on countable units of military hardware is a key element of successful arms control. A number of new technologies, however, do not lend themselves to this quantitative approach. This study looks at hypersonic glide vehicles, autonomy in weapons systems and brain-computer interfaces as examples of new and emerging technologies and points out the need for regulation before going on to discuss how qualitative arms control can meet these new challenges.

An end to the presidency of Donald J. Trump would serve as an opportunity for Europe and Germany not only to repair the broken relationship with the US but also to play a more active role in the future orientation of the West. Through early initiatives, Germany could shape US calls for more European responsibility and help transform current differences between the Allies into transatlantic progress.

There is an urgent need to adapt nuclear arms control to technological and political changes, and to further develop and consolidate its bilat- eral and multilateral instruments. But instead, existing agreements are under threat of erosion. This study outlines the deep crisis in which nuclear arms control finds itself. It concludes with a positive and a negative scenario and encourages further research.

In a landmark ruling in 2000 the German armed forces were opened for women to serve in all branches. As of today, the proportion of women is at a good 12 per cent. This interview offers future female military leaders in the Bundeswehr encouragement and some perspective from two highly distinguished senior female military leaders, Retired Australian Major General Simone Wilkie and Canadian Lieutenant General Chris Whitecross. The interview was conducted online by Metis Director Prof. Dr. Carlo Masala in July 2020.

A video recording is available on the Metis website. This transcript was slightly redacted.

After years of neglect, the GIUK Gap is now once more receiving the attention it deserves from the security community. Although its significance with regard to the Arctic is likely to change in the future, this area in the North Atlantic remains a strategically important line of communication and transportation for the US and Europe. This study anticipates possible strategic courses of action for NATO.

At first sight, deterrence reflects a simple idea: A credible threat of retaliation convinces potential attackers that the cost of an act of aggression will outweigh its benefit. That is how deterrence prevents war. A closer look at the concept, however, has raised questions ever since the beginning of the nuclear age. Against the backdrop of current security policy challenges, this study examines if and how the concept remains applicable.

Central Asia is increasingly becoming a focus region for matters of geopolitics, security and energy due to its energy resources and China’s new Silk Road. The local deposits of oil and gas have proven to be both an advantage and a disadvantage for the Central Asian states. They are strengthening the positions of authoritarian elites in the regional fossil economies and resulting in national economies that react sensitively to price fluctuations in the oil and gas markets and depend on external investments. The Caucasus can similarly be regarded as a transit area for energy, raw materials and goods as well as a s ­ mouldering trouble spot. After highlighting the political, economic and security situations, the study examines how the visibility and influence of the EU can be increased in the regions.

Science fiction can be an important source of inspiration in the context of strategic foresight and a tool to prepare for what could – or should – lie ahead. In this study, a brief examination of this connection will be followed by a closer look at the genre of science fiction and a number of specific examples before concluding with four recommended readings.

There has been a recent resurgence of interest among state actors and an increasing number of private stakeholders in the exploration and commercialisation of space. This renewed activity has resulted in a number of security issues and challenges. The present study not only examines the role of satellites as critical infrastructures indispensable for the functioning of modern societies but also addresses some of the problems associated with space debris. It also focusses on space weapons and the growing risks they pose to space objects and emphasise the importance of further developing international law with regard to space security. Finally, the study takes a look at ways of safeguarding German and European interests in space.

Health is a guarantee for personal well-being and social, economic and political development and stability. Serious threats to it can destabilize societies, states and regions and j­eopardize peace, so global health risks have long been a subject of security-related thought. The present study takes a prescient look at two developments. The first is that of the risk of pandemics, with a focus on the increasing resistance of pathogens; the second is that of the chances for improving global health care. The study's final section briefly looks at three health-­related matters to think about for the Bundeswehr.

Cli-fi, short for climate fiction, is literature that deals – more or less speculatively – with the effects of climate change. The following short story falls into this genre and is set in the near future.

The 21st century belongs to Africa. At least that is what the concept of an “African Renaissance” promises. The African continent is going through a phase of transition and new beginnings. It would be in their own best interest for Germany and Europe to continue to support sustainable economic development and prosperity, political stabilisation, self-organisation and further democratisation as well as environmental protection in Africa. Empowering and supporting African states without fostering neo-colonial dependencies should be the primary objective of German and European Africa policy.

This study focuses on two natural resources that are particularly relevant for Germany: rare-earth metals, which are needed for the production of future technologies, and natural gas, which is important for energy production in connection with the energy transition. Space mining is also examined as a proposed form of resource extraction that promises to be an alternative to exploiting Earth. Finally, a number of implications for security and economic policy are discussed, including the possible reconsideration of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project.

This study focuses on the triad of data, its processing and its conversion into economic and military power to shed light on the race between the United States and China for supremacy in the digital age. It highlights arms and arms control, strategic stability and, prospectively, the implica- tions of a potential quantum computing revolution. The study ends with a number of further-reaching thoughts regarding the implications of the digital age’s world order for liberal democracies such as Germany.

The hegemonic struggle in the Middle East between Saudi Arabia and Iran – and in a broader sense between Saudi Arabia, Iran and Turkey – for supremacy in the Islamic world has already led to proxy conflicts in Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. This not only raises the threat of interstate conflict but could also lead to territorial reorganisation in the Middle East. It calls for a reassessment of existing alliances and partnerships in the region.

The extended concept of security means that many additional factors now influence security policy considerations. These factors include food and water scarcity and the interrelationship between this problem and existing conflict potential. The present study will address this issue in the context of the water-food-energy-climate nexus. It will outline global trends and, by focusing on the example of water scarcity and a number of relevant cases, will show that conflicts do not necessarily have to be aggravated but can also be dealt with, to a certain extent, in a multilateral, cooperative way. Progressing climate change will lead to greater challenges in this area, but they will remain firstly humanitarian, development policy and climate policy challenges and only secondly security challenges.

State fragility in Africa affects the security of Europe and Germany. State failure, weak state institutions and transnational and ethnic conflicts are all causing migration and are factors conducive to radicalisation and international terrorism. Identifying and cooperating with reliable state, international and non-governmental partners in the region are thus long-term measures of conflict prevention.

In terms of propaganda, particularly on the Internet, the Islamic State (IS) has set new standards. Although the organisation has been defeated militarily, individual IS-related attacks continue to take place. Additional preparations must be made with a view toward countering successor organisations. This paper first examines the radicalisation process as well as the IS narrative. Against this backdrop, it develops three rules of thumb with which to create counter- and alternative narratives aimed at delegitimising IS. To this end, it draws on practical examples from partner nations.

Among the states with increasingly authoritarian political systems, Turkey is of special interest to Germany, as it is a NATO partner and, additionally, because Germany is home to a large Turkish minority. Recent developments require a politico-military reevaluation of German-Turkish relations and, if necessary, adjustments, particularly in light of Turkey’s obstructionist attitude within NATO over the past few years. Germany must develop a strategy to bind Turkey to the West in the post-Erdogan era. This requires bilateral attempts as well as an approach at the EU/NATO level.

The impact of climate change on the Arctic is of importance to Germany and the international community in geopolitical, geoeconomic and geoecological terms. The freedom of sea routes, the use of maritime resources and the exploitation of these resources on the sea bed and the possible militarisation of the Arctic will affect German and European economic and security interests. Although the security policy implications of climate change will emerge only gradually, Germany should prepare for political, legal, economic, ecological and military challenges in concert with its European and international partners. These include establishing capabilities for operations in the Arctic and conducting manoeuvres with partners in the region.

The autonomy of machines is the most important future trend in the digital age. With regard to weapon systems, autonomy promises to act as a force multiplier and to permit higher operational speeds and more precise effects. However, in matters of conflict management, the elimination of human control carries operational risks of a legal and ethical nature as well as strategic risks due to new, escalation-prone forms of conflict. As regards a Bundeswehr use of autonomous weapon systems, this report thus recommends a nuanced approach that helps the Bundeswehr exploit potential advantages while minimising the risks. On a national level, this approach includes preparing a policy document to make sure that the selection and engagement of targets always remains under meaningful human control except for defensive systems. On an international level, it encompasses efforts toward an international, verifiable set of regulations on autonomy in weapon systems that are legally binding under international law.