Study #36

Scenarios for the effects of climate change on security policy in Germany

This study discusses the security implications and effects of climate change in Germany. On the basis of a combination of scenarios developed by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) for emission-induced climate change and associated socio-economic transformation processes, the study develops three reference scenarios to illustrate the various operational scenarios for subsidiary assistance and host nation support (HNS). The different development paths are traced to outline some of the future challenges posed by climate-induced operations at home and to derive recommended courses of action for the Bundeswehr.