Study #33

Scenarios: Effects of climate change on Bundeswehr missions

This study discusses the security implications and effects of climate change on future Bundeswehr operations. To this end, the study draws on and combines scenarios published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on emission-induced climate change as well as the associated processes of socio-economic transformation to create three reference scenarios that describe different climate-related operational scenarios. On the basis of the different development pathways of these scenarios, future challenges resulting from climate-induced operations are outlined and recommendations for action for the Bundeswehr are derived.