Will there finally be “peace” in the South Caucasus?
Azerbaijan, Armenia and the geopolitical prospects of the new post-Karabakh order
The “lightning offensive” launched by Azerbaijan against the majority Armenian (Nagorno-)Karabakh province in September 2023 resolved the question of territorial integrity and sovereignty in favour of Baku while changing the region’s long-term geopolitical orientation to the disadvantage of Armenia and Western stakeholders. Nevertheless, the West may continue to play an important role in the region – but only if its representatives figure out their own genuine interests and increase their material commitment substantially.