Study #49
Worst Cases II
This follow-up study to the Metis study ‘Worst Cases’ (No. 41) develops five interlinked scenarios: an Israeli-Turkish war over influence in Syria, a jihadist ‘caliphate belt’ stretching from the Atlantic to the Euphrates, a democratic breakdown in Germany, a forced blockade of the Strait of Malacca, and the end of transatlantic cohesion. Their common denominator is the structural overload on European and German capacity to act, caused by the combined effect of external shocks and endogenous erosion.
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